去年我在专栏中预测，美国和中国的风险投资今年很可能将出现崩溃式的下滑，当时我很大胆地预测可能下滑幅度会达到50％。事实上，这个预测还是过于保守。

根据PriceWaterhouseCoopers, the National Venture Capital Association and Thomson Reuters两大机构的联手调查数据，美国第一季度风险投资数额只有30亿美元，较一年前的77.4亿美元下滑61％，跌到了1997年的水平（当年为29.6亿美元），一下子退步12年，比2000年之后的互联网寒冬更为悲惨。

第一季度获得风险投资的企业数量为549个，而一年前为997个。这是1995年以来的最低数字。更是退步了14年。几乎所有领域都遭遇寒流，包括2008年下半年还一枝独秀的清洁技术，这次也遭遇重创，投资急剧下挫。

第一季度没有一家VC投资的企业上市，IPO数量罕见地拿下零蛋，令人叹息。而且短期之内，依然看不到光明。

中国有了创业板的题材炒作，相信会有很多投机基金进入所谓的风险投资行业。趁美国低迷之际，中国所谓的风险投资资金，很可能在数量上大大提前了超越美国的时间表。

不过，正如谢文所言，很多国内所谓的风险投资，堪比土狼。优秀的创业公司落入他们的嘴里，很可能最终尸骨无存。

查看趋势图展开的地址：http://fxd.bokee.com/inc/VC����.JPG

附录英文报道：

NEW YORK (AP) - U.S. venture capital investments sank 61 percent in the first quarter, dropping to the lowest level in 12 years as financiers became even warier about sinking funds into startups during a deepening recession.

In yet-another indicator that a pullback that began last summer is not abating, venture capital investments totaled $3 billion during the first three months of 2009, according to a report released Saturday by PriceWaterhouseCoopers, the National Venture Capital Association and Thomson Reuters. In the year-ago quarter, investments totaled $7.74 billion.

This is the lowest quarterly level of venture investments since the first quarter of 1997, when they totaled $2.96 billion.

The report said 549 companies received investments in the first quarter, down from 997 in the same period last year. This is the smallest number of companies to receive investments since the first quarter of 1995.

Almost every industry saw a decline in venture investments. The software industry received the most funding, with $614 million spread out among 138 companies, down almost 56 percent by dollars and 45 percent by deals compared with last year.

One of the few industries to report year-over-year growth was health care services, where investments edged up 6 percent to $46.7 million. Eleven companies received investments - one more than in the same quarter of 2007.

Internet-specific investments, which refers to companies whose business models are fundamentally dependent on the Web, totaled $556 million, down 58 percent from last year.

Alternative energy, pollution and recycling, power supplies and conservation - or "clean technology" - had been among the only bright spots during the last three months of 2008, when $971 million was invested in 67 companies. But in the first quarter, $154 million was invested in 33 companies in this sector. Compared with the year-ago quarter, the drop was almost 87 percent in investments and 50 percent in the number of companies that received funds.

The amount invested in companies seeking their first round of financing was especially low in the first quarter, as $596 million went to 132 companies, the lowest number of dollars and deals since the third quarter of 1994. This compares with the $1.7 billion spread among 324 companies a year ago.

The top deals in the first quarter included $50 million invested in pharmaceutical company Anacor Pharmaceuticals Inc., $35 million invested in mobile payment service provider Obopay Inc. and $35 million invested in short-messaging service Twitter Inc.

The number of venture-backed companies that were acquired during the quarter fell by nearly half to 56, from 106 in the same quarter last year. There were no initial public offerings of venture-backed companies.

During a conference call, John Taylor, vice president of research for the NVCA, said venture investors are being selective right now, "and the best ideas are getting funded but the marginal ones aren\\\'t."